Arouca vs Nacional prediction

Arouca – Nacional, Primeira Liga, Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 03:30 PM (GMT). Venue: TBD

Arouca is #5 in the table (17 pts) and Nacional #15 (7 pts). 10 places separate the two teams in the table. Arouca is unbeaten in its last 5 matches. Arouca has kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches. Last 6 head-to-head meetings: Arouca 4, draws 1, Nacional 1. Their last meeting, on February 21, 2026, ended Arouca 3-0 Nacional.

Arouca

03:30 PM

Nacional

AI confidence: Medium

AI match recap

Arouca arrive as the more settled side, with a stronger league position, better recent defensive work and a productive run of results. Nacional’s win against Braga gives them a clear reference point for an organised, upset-minded performance, but it followed a damaging spell of defeats and they are still seeking their first away league win. The home side should see more of the ball and test Nacional’s defensive spacing through the wide areas and the central attacking-midfield pocket. Team news is the major outstanding variable because available preview listings disagree on the absences.

Predicted score and probabilities

The AI's exact score, win/draw/loss probabilities, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and 5 key factors are in the full analysis.

See the full AI analysis

Head-to-head analysis

This fixture has recently favoured Arouca, who have won four of the last five meetings and each of the last four league encounters. Their latest meeting in Arouca ended in a convincing home victory, reinforcing the home side’s tactical comfort in this matchup.

Form (last 5)

AroucaLeague position #5 · 17 ptsD W W

NacionalLeague position #15 · 7 ptsL L W

Arouca vs Nacional stats

	Arouca	Nacional
Played	9	9
Goals scored	12	10
Goals conceded	7	18
Clean sheets	5	2

Last meetings

2026-02-21Arouca 3-0 Nacional
2025-09-20Nacional 1-2 Arouca
2025-02-01Nacional 1-2 Arouca
2024-08-25Arouca 1-0 Nacional
2018-05-06Arouca 0-1 Nacional
2017-12-22Nacional 2-2 Arouca